Scolytine bark beetles from the genus Tomicus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) are among the most important forestry pests globally, known for their ability to establish themselves in new environments and pose a risk to native forest ecosystems. These beetles are considered non-native to the Americas. However, Tomicus piniperda L., commonly known as the pine shoot beetle, has recently invaded North America, and specimens of T. minor Hart have been identified in the United States. Their potential for establishment in Mexico continues to increase. A proactive approach to assessing the risk of invasive species involves ecological niche modeling. Using bioclimatic variables, species distribution data, an entropy-based algorithm, and modeling tools, the ecological niches of 3 Tomicus species were determined and mapped across Mexico. The findings indicated that Tomicus destruens could potentially be established in limited and scattered regions in the Altiplano Norte biogeographic province and a separate area in the province of Tamaulipeca. In contrast, T. minor showed a high probability of suitability in the biogeographic provinces of Baja California, California, Sonorense, Altiplano Norte, Altiplano Sur, Tamaulipeca, and certain regions in the eastern Eje Volcánico. No suitable environmental conditions for T. piniperda were identified in Mexico. Additional factors, including specific ecological requirements, host tree preferences, and interactions with native fauna, are explored concerning the possible establishment of T. minor in the country. This research holds substantial significance, as Mexico is recognized as one of the world’s most important regions for pine diversity, with key pine biodiversity hotspots.
