%0 Journal Article
%T Projected Distribution and Occurrence Risk of the Floodwater Mosquito Aedes vexans (Meigen, 1830) in the Netherlands
%A Hannah Wright
%A Oliver Hughes
%A James Collins
%A Sophie Ward
%J Entomological Research Letters
%@ 3108-639X
%D 2025
%V 5
%N 2
%R 10.51847/0zG4vTJHpI
%P 78-91
%X  

The floodwater mosquito Aedes vexans (Meigen, 1830) is a species known for causing substantial nuisance and for its role as a vector of several arboviruses. Its range is anticipated to undergo shifts due to future changes in climate and land use, making it essential to understand these dynamics for assessing disease risk. The present study investigates habitat suitability and occurrence probability of A. vexans, focusing on the Netherlands as a case study. Occurrence data were obtained from the Netherlands Centre for Monitoring of Vectors, and an automated machine learning (autoML) framework was applied to model generation. Multiple modelling techniques were tested, the most effective presence–absence data ratio for training was identified, and a final ensemble comprising ten models was constructed. Predictor variables included climate parameters, land-use categories, soil attributes, flood risk, and salinity. The probability of A. vexans presence was mapped on a 1 km grid under current conditions and projected across four scenarios for 2050. Results highlight temperature, soil type, and land cover as the most influential drivers of species occurrence. Projections indicate a rising probability of A. vexans presence, especially along major river corridors and in areas characterized by expanding artificial and natural landscapes. Furthermore, all scenarios suggest an extension of the mosquito season. The findings not only provide the first detailed projections of future occurrence and seasonality for this species in the Netherlands but also offer transferable insights for other north-western European regions and urban delta environments. Seasonal forecasts are particularly valuable, as they help evaluate how disease risk may evolve throughout the year in light of longer mosquito activity periods
%U https://esvpub.com/article/projected-distribution-and-occurrence-risk-of-the-floodwater-mosquito-aedes-vexans-meigen-1830-in-wpphylxmpksty1b