TY  - JOUR
T1  - Emerging Animal Disease Is Recognized Too Late When Surveillance Systems Wait for Diagnostic Certainty: A Signal-to-Action Architecture for Syndromic Detection, Laboratory Uncertainty, Spatial Clustering, and Veterinary Outbreak Preparedness
A1  - Mikko Lahtinen
A1  - Elina Salo
A1  - Juhani Virtanen
JF  - International Journal of Veterinary Research and Allied Sciences
JO  - Int J Vet Res Allied Sci
SN  - 3062-357X
Y1  - 2025
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
DO  - 10.51847/vGkjnay0go
SP  - 118
EP  - 127
N2  - Emerging animal diseases may become epidemiologically consequential before conventional surveillance reaches diagnostic certainty. Clinical deterioration, production losses, behavioral change, unusual mortality, laboratory ambiguity, spatial concentration, temporal aberration, wildlife events, and movement-linked exposure can each provide incomplete but potentially actionable information. This original non-empirical surveillance architecture examines how such signals can be interpreted without converting uncertainty into premature diagnosis. The analysis distinguishes observation from confirmation, signal convergence from etiologic proof, statistical aberration from biological specificity, and preparedness action from definitive control action. Across the reviewed evidence, early-warning value is repeatedly conditioned by species, production system, sampling design, baseline stability, search effort, network completeness, and false-alarm burden. The article therefore proposes a signal-to-action architecture in which heterogeneous evidence streams remain analytically separate until an explicit interpretation boundary is crossed; confidence is updated through corroboration, discordance checking, contextual modifiers, and laboratory reassessment; and veterinary response is scaled to urgency, reversibility, and the cost of being wrong. The architecture is intended to support earlier verification, focused sampling, risk-based surveillance, and cross-sector notification without implying that weak signals establish infection. It is designed for heterogeneous veterinary systems in which waiting carries costs but acting prematurely can also cause harm. Its principal limitation is that the proposed states, transitions, and escalation logic have not been prospectively validated across diseases, species, or jurisdictions. Their value must therefore be tested against real outbreak timelines, false-alarm costs, surveillance drift, implementation constraints, and external performance before operational adoption.
UR  - https://esvpub.com/article/emerging-animal-disease-is-recognized-too-late-when-surveillance-systems-wait-for-diagnostic-certain-pekm75euwxisqng
ER  -